Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID‐19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis – Scenario based study from ICAO on possible 2020 impacts

The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on scheduled international passenger traffic for the first 9 months of 2020, compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned), would be:

V-shaped path (a first sign of recovery in late May)

  • –  Overall reduction ranging from 41% to 56% of seats offered by airlines
  • –  Overall reduction of 705 to 963 million passengers
  • –  Approx. USD 160 to 218 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines

U-shaped path (restart in third quarter or later)

  • –  Overall reduction ranging from 57% to 67% of seats offered by airlines
  • –  Overall reduction of 961 to 1,117 million passengers
  • –  Approx. USD 218 to 253 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines

The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and economic conditions, etc.

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