Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID‐19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis – Scenario based study from ICAO on possible 2020 impacts

The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on scheduled international passenger traffic for the first 9 months of 2020, compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned), would be:

V-shaped path (a first sign of recovery in late May)

  • –  Overall reduction ranging from 41% to 56% of seats offered by airlines
  • –  Overall reduction of 705 to 963 million passengers
  • –  Approx. USD 160 to 218 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines

U-shaped path (restart in third quarter or later)

  • –  Overall reduction ranging from 57% to 67% of seats offered by airlines
  • –  Overall reduction of 961 to 1,117 million passengers
  • –  Approx. USD 218 to 253 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines

The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and economic conditions, etc.

International Air Travel as an Indicator of COVID-19 Economic Recovery… if any enterprise is likely to be a leading indicator of economic expectations, it seems that the airline industry is a good candidate

9/11 attacks provide a good reference point for international air travel, it took the aviation industry months to resume normal operations. Much the same can be expected when it comes to post-COVID-19 travel. Fear will diminish interest in travel, aviation systems will be disrupted and new health measures will need to be deployed. Indeed, if anything, the continuing virus-related disruptions may be deeper and longer-lasting than those that followed the 9/11 attacks.


Coronavirus Response Boris Johnson’s government keeps promising to “Get Brexit Done,” even as the deadly pandemic ravages the country.

“Yet, as several other nations tackle the pandemic in more effective ways, British exceptionalism has collided with reality. It was the government’s decision to listen to a small handful of British scientists, after all, that may have prevented the UK from ramping up its testing at a critical juncture in the pandemic.”