Has UK turned corner, and flatten curve when it comes to new Coronavirus cases?

Data shows that 3 of last 4 days, the count of new cases has been below the rolling 7-day average. This is first time during the crisis that is showing clear signs that growth in new cases are getting under control. This can be see in figure below.

The figure uses a standard control chart, with a 7-day moving average to track data. The approach is helpful as it illustrates how the daily data count fits within statistical control boundaries.

UK will have Europe’s worst coronavirus death toll, says study

IHME has released estimates of predicted peaks in COVID-19 deaths and hospital resource use among countries in the European Economic Area (EEA). Projections are rather grim for the UK, in particular compared to other countries. One should hesitate to rely on these projections without further analysis and understanding of the data.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Austria is on target to be first European country to ease restrictions…statistical control charts can explain why…

Austria is planning to ease lockdown restrictions after Easter. Statistical control charts provide a simple and very practical tool for looking at data, and assessing the robustness of the claim.

Data for daily new cases and deaths can be used to plot not only daily data but also calculate control lines for mean and 1, 2 and 3 sigma. This is done using a moving average. Moving average is baed on 7 days. A moving average is needed as a fixed boundary cannot be maintained. The moving average is based on 7 days, which appears to be a reasonable time period. Control limits signal that day-to-day variations in data are to be expected. It is about looking for trends in data, not the noise from daily variations.

Results are shown in figures below, with yellow circles showing the trend. It is evident that Austria display all the signs of having new cases under control, with daily count reducing day-on-day.

For comparison, Italy is also included. A similar trend can be observed in the data, with the mean number of daily new cases (and deaths) going down.

https://www.ft.com/content/d7025074-496e-4609-84c3-22c000cc41d6

ICNARC report on 2249 COVID-19 patients in critical care 04 April 2020

Survival rate when entering into invasive ventilation is 50%, and much lower if within first 24 hours of admission.