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Yesterday, #Whitty and #Wallance claimed that UK has high #Covid mortality rate due to new variant – but current UK #mortality rate is similar to average for #European countries – there is not a specific #UK issue #CovidUK

Posted on January 23, 2021 Leave a Comment

All values are based on 7-day moving average. Positive cases have been lagged by 21 days to provide a better fit.

7-day moving average of UK #Covid deaths was 1,072 yesterday and is projected to increase further next two weeks, with another 25,000 deaths likely by end of January (3.3% of positive cases leading to death after 21 days) #CovidUK #forecast #Lockdown3 #Covid-19

Posted on January 15, 2021 Leave a Comment

7-day moving average of UK #Covid deaths was 915 yesterday and is projected to double over next three weeks, with total projected deaths over 30,000 (based on 3.3% of positive cases leading to death after 21 days) #CovidUK #forecast #Lockdown3 #Covid-19

Posted on January 11, 2021 Leave a Comment

08/01- Recent #NHSEngland data shows that a 50,000 increase in positive #Covid cases results in an immediate demand for 750 hospital beds, with 90 being mechanical ventilator beds – Covid crisis is getting worse for #NHS – #LockDown #CovidUK #Covid-19

Posted on January 9, 2021 Leave a Comment

UK #Covid deaths hit 1,325 today and forecast shows that weekly average will double over next 3 weeks. Total projected deaths for rest of January is 25-30,000 (based on 3.1% of positive cases leading to death after 21 days. #CovidUK #forecast #Lockdown3

Posted on January 8, 2021 Leave a Comment

UK #Covid deaths hit 1,162 today and forecast shows that weekly average will double over next 3 weeks. Total projected deaths for rest of January is 25-30,000 (based on 3.1% of positive cases leading to death after 21 days. #CovidUK #forecast #Lockdown3

Posted on January 7, 2021 Leave a Comment

06/01- #NHSEngland data shows that a 50,000 increase in positive #Covid cases results in an immediate demand for 700 hospital beds, with 80 being mechanical ventilator beds – illustrating the crisis building up for #NHS – #LockDown #CovidUK #Covid-19

Posted on January 6, 2021 Leave a Comment

Updated forecast of UK #Covid deaths. Model projected 1,150 today (actual was 1,040). Expected number of deaths tomorrow is 1,350 (still based on 3.3% of of positive cases leads to death after 21 days. #CovidUK #forecast #Lockdown3 #forecast #data

Posted on January 6, 2021 Leave a Comment

Total #Covid deaths in the UK is expected to be 1,150, with a 7-day moving average of 695 daily deaths. This is based on analysis of historic data, showing that circa 3.3% of positive cases results in death after 21 days. #CovidUK #forecast #Lockdown3

Posted on January 6, 2021 Leave a Comment

21 day forecast of UK #Covid deaths – Covid mortality rate is 3.3% of positive cases, meaning that daily deaths are expected to increase to nearly 2,000 over next three weeks #CovidUK #Covid #forecast #lockdown #BorisJohnson #Lockdown3 #Tory #Tories

Posted on January 5, 2021 Leave a Comment

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